[eDebate] Baylor LT Aff

[scott varda]

Baylor LT aff plus our consult russia cites
Syria Grand Bargain



Contention 1- Inherency



The US policy toward Syria is isolationist

            Hassan  2007 
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07

/31/AR2007073101771.html

President
Bush has not formulated………Syria
loses meaning



Advantage 1: US Invasion



Unless the US pursues rapprochement with Syria, it will
attempt to take down the Assad regime

            Rosner  2007   www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerBlog.jhtml

            The title given to the ………..a concrete danger



Destabilization of Assad’s
regime leads to fundamentalist takeover and oil sabotage, leading to global
economic depression

            Juan Cole 
2005 
www.mepc.org/forums_chcs/41.asp

            If the Unites States.......dangerous to us all



Economic collapse leads to
extinction

            Bearden



Advantage 2: Lebanon



Lebanese politics hinge on Syria-
continued tension ensures a destabilizing power vacuum- now is the key time to
end political paralysis

            AFP  Aug. 30
2007  Anti-Syrian Lebanese MP joins
presidential race

            Anti-Syrian MP……destabilize the country



Political paralysis, Hezbollah
military crisis and the arming of sunni militants makes war in Leb inevitable

            The Observer   Aug.
19, 2007  Lebanese await the inevitbable
return of war  p. 36

            Lebanon’s
uncertain future……..it will come



Lebanese instability cuts off
access to the suez canal and spills over to decades of war in the middle east

            Cetron and Davies 
2007  The Futurist  Sept. 1 
Worst Case Senario

            There is more to come…….else for decades



Engaging Syria solves
Lebanese political conflict and allows for coop in the Leb gov’t

            Perthes  2006   Foreign Affairs  Nov/Dec  
“The Syrian Solution”

            Syrian officials……..of recent months



This rapproachment solves the
arming of militants and security crisis in the region by cutting off the flow
of weapons from Syria,
preventing all senarios for conflict

            Defense and Foreign Affairs   2007 
July  The Fractruing of Syria’s Inner Circle p. 4

            The inner circle of…….and the Hizballah



Advantage 3: The Golan 



Israels violation of Syria’s airspace puts the countries
on the brink of all out war

            Moubayed  Sept. 12,
2007 www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle
_East/II12AK03.html

            Last week, four………for 15 years



Assad is side lined by US policy in peace making efforts; he’ll launch
a lightening strike against Israel
in order to push the Golan to the top of the US agenda

Blanford  Sept 10 2007 
www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1660477,00.html?imw=Y

            Whatever their purpose…….Isreael in 1967



Although there is a high risk
of war, no decions have been made yet, the US has to step in to solve the
conflict to solve the risk of miscalc

            Moubayed

            Unite Press International……..do not want war



Syria will use bio-weapons, it’s the basis of their plan
against Israel
if war breaks out

            Shoham  2002 www.meforum.org/article/510

            Syria
today has the most………realized in part



Use the bio-weapons leads to
extinction

            Ochs



Israel will leash massive nuclear retalieation, extinction

            Moore 2004 
www.carolmoore.net/nuclearwar/israelithreats.html

            In April 2002……..goes under



A Golan settlement is key to
over-all peace in the region- it determines if the future will be peace or war

            Armanazi  2007   The Key to a Middle
 East Settlement

            For these reasons…..that defy prediction



Advantage 4: Iraq



Syria’s external support for the insurgency is the number
one sourse of instavility in Iraq

            Meeks   2006

            Finally, in what is……..harbors Saddamists



Revoking the threat of regime
change will cause Syria
to control its borders. Leading to a stable Iraq

            University Wire  
2007  L/N

            Finally, Syria’s
role…….should take it



Stabilizing Iraq is key to human survival

            Yaphe  2006

            But as everyone………to our shores



Solvency



Syria holds the ke to the entire Middle
 East- must engage

            Ben Meir  2007  “Syria does matter”

            It is true that……constructive engagement



Syria will end its ties with Iran,
hamas, make peace with Israel,
and align with the US

            The Forward  
2007  “Dentente is the talk of
town

            Syrians point to …….sticking point



Isreal would like the plan

            Derfner   2007  US news and world report

            Yet in recent weeks…..from Damascus



If they K subjectivity or
discourse, we say no

            Baudrillard 
1983   In the Sadow of the
Silent  p. 30-48



Plan: The United States federal government  will substantially increase  constructive engagement with the government of Syria by offering them a security
guarantee that the US will not attempt regime change as long as Syria doesn’t attack Israel,
the US
should also offer gradual normalization of relations, including a substantial increase in
foreign assistance in exchange for Syria
ending its ties with hezbollah, hamas, and iran.

 
A2 Consult Russia 

Gerber  Giving Prior notice to our allies  Jan. 2007





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